Sunday, May 22, 2005

More betting on climate

George Monbiot is getting in on the game now. Ok, I admit, emailed him about it - but was surprised and pleased that he picked it up so enthusiastically.

Within a day of my emailing him about my dealings with Richard Lindzen, he was on the BBC Radio4 "Today" program (morning news and current affairs) debating climate change with Myron Ebell (typical right-wing think-tank person). Monbiot's opening gambit was to challenge Ebell to a bet over whether the world was going to warm up over the next 10 years. Ebell declined the bet, and admitted that indeed it was likely to warm up. You can find the interview here.

The tactic seemed to work well in terms of putting Ebell on the defensive. Of course my original hope was that the bets would establish what the range of beliefs actually was, but so far not a single sceptic has come forward to disagree with the standard (IPCC) view.

Sooner or later the denialists might decide that it is worth taking on a few losing bets, just to avoid looking dishonest. I just hope I can get a slice of the cash when they do.

1 comment:

jzf said...

I have done similarly in the blogosphere. I give deniers 4 to 1 (my 10 K vs. their 2.5 K) that any month they pick in the future will be warmer than the 20th Ce average. If it is cooler (or average) they win.

I could give them 1000 to 1 and still make a killing.

No one of the army of flying monkeys that fill pages with their jive has taken me up on it.